February 2026 – A landmark study published in The Lancet has found that modern hip replacements last far longer than most people expect. The research, which combined data from nearly 1.9 million hip replacements across eight national joint registries worldwide, found that 94% of modern hip replacements are still functioning at 20 years, 93% at 25 years, and 92% at 30 years — with no sign of revision surgery needed.
Changing the Conversation
One of the most common questions patients ask in the orthopaedic clinic is: “How long will my hip replacement last?” Many people still believe a hip replacement lasts only about 15 years, and that they will inevitably need a second operation. These beliefs are understandable — they were true in the 1990s, when older materials wore out more quickly.
But since the year 2000, the materials used in hip replacement have improved dramatically. Highly crosslinked polyethylene and modern ceramic bearings wear at a fraction of the rate of the older plastics and metals they replaced. This study is the first to measure the real-world impact of those advances on a global scale.
What the Study Found
The researchers analysed data from joint registries in Australia, the UK, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Canada, and the United States — the largest dataset of its kind ever assembled. They focused specifically on modern bearing surfaces (highly crosslinked polyethylene and third- or fourth-generation ceramics), which have been standard practice worldwide since approximately 2008.
Key findings:
- 96–97% survivorship at 10 years
- 94% survivorship at 20 years
- 93% predicted survivorship at 25 years
- 92% predicted survivorship at 30 years
This is a major improvement over the previous gold-standard estimate from a 2019 Lancet study, which reported that only 58% of hip replacements lasted 25 years — but that earlier study was based on older implant technologies no longer in common use.
What This Means for Patients
For patients considering hip replacement, the message is clear: a modern hip replacement is likely to last a lifetime for the vast majority of people. The anxiety about needing a second operation is, for most patients, no longer justified.
This has particular significance for younger patients, where there has traditionally been reluctance to operate because of concerns about implant longevity. With 92% survivorship at 30 years, a patient receiving a hip replacement at age 55 can reasonably expect their implant to still be functioning well into their 80s.
Professor Walter’s Commentary
Professor Bill Walter performs hip replacement surgery using modern bearing surfaces including highly crosslinked polyethylene and ceramic-on-ceramic bearings at the Mater Hospital in Sydney. These are the same materials evaluated in this Lancet study.
“This is an important paper because it finally answers the question patients ask most often,” says Professor Walter. “The old rule of thumb — that a hip lasts 15 years — simply doesn’t apply anymore. With modern materials and surgical techniques, the vast majority of hip replacements will outlast the patient. That’s a message we can now deliver with real confidence, backed by data from nearly two million operations worldwide.”
Reference: Pentland V, Thompson Z, Dayimu A, et al. Survivorship of modern total hip replacement to 30 years: systematic review, meta-analysis, and extrapolation of global joint registry data. The Lancet 2026; 407: 855–66.
Watch: 9 News Sydney – Hip Replacements in Australia